2012 NFL PLAYOFFS: DIVISIONAL ROUND

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers
ANALYSIS: The San Francisco 49ers are back in the playoffs for the first time in nine seasons and new head coach Jim Harbaugh has the team playing good football. Alex Smith has not been asked to do much, but he has done a great job in protecting the football with just five interceptions. Shouldering most of the load has been Frank Gore—who ran for a solid 1211 yards and eight touchdowns this season. San Francisco is also doing it on the defensive end with the fourth-best unit in the league. Giving up passing yardage might be a concern, but the 49ers picked off 23 passes, while it is very tough to run on the best run defense in the league.

The New Orleans Saints got off to a slow start on Wild Card Weekend, but everything clicked late as they defeated the Detroit Lions, 45-28. The Saints offense was as explosive, if ever, tallying up 626 yards—a new NFL record for a playoff game. Drew Brees threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns on 33-of-43 passing, and Jabari Greer’s two second half interceptions virtually end any chance of a Lions’ win. This week, the Saints will try to win their first road game in franchise history. 

PREDICTION: Saints 27, 49ers 23
KEY MATCHUP: The Saints offense vs. the 49ers defense (especially the passing game)

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
ANALYSIS: The New England Patriots are back in the playoffs, yet they are seeking their first postseason win since the AFC Championship Game four seasons ago. In a mirror image of last season, the Patriots breezed through the second half of the season and Tom Brady made his claim to win the MVP award. Brady passed for 5235 yards and 39 touchdowns, and if not for Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, he would have had the more prolific passing season this year. His two favorite targets—Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski—were reliable this season, each having over 1300 yards receiving. On the flip side, New England has the second-worst defense in the league but they did force the third-most takeaways with 34.

Tebow-Mania lives to see another week after the Denver Broncos’ thrilling 29-23 overtime win last week. Just as everyone was grasping the new overtime rules made specifically for the playoffs, Tim Tebow hooked up with Demaryius Thomas for the 80-yard “one-hitta quitta” to seal the deal.  Tebow was just 10-for-21 passing, but he threw for 316 yards. While under the radar, Thomas’ 204 receiving yards (103 after the catch) is just as impressive. Denver hopes to avenge a 41-23 loss in Week 15 to the Patriots. 

PREDICTION: Broncos 23, Patriots 20
KEY MATCHUP: Tim Tebow vs. the Patriots defense

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
ANALYSIS: The Baltimore Ravens finally were able to unseat the Pittsburgh Steelers as champions of the AFC North, ensuring a home playoff game for the first time since 2007. The Ravens are still fierce on defense, giving up the third-fewest yards and points this season. Terrell Suggs recorded 14 sacks and one can never count out Ray Lewis being the heart and soul of the unit. On offense, Ray Rice ran for 1364 yards and 12 touchdowns, along with catching 74 passes. Joe Flacco continues to be hit-or-miss playing quarterback at times, but he threw for 3610 yards and 20 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. Rice, Anquan Boldin, Ed Dickson and Torrey Smith will be counted on to help Flacco.

Houston, we have liftoff! The Houston Texans soared to a 31-10 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in their first-ever playoff game last week. Arian Foster dominated on the ground, running the ball 24 times for 153 yards and two touchdowns. Andre Johnson caught five passes for 90 yards in his playoff debut and Houston’s defense forced three turnovers, including J.J. Watt’s pick six late in the second quarter. In this week’s game, can rookie T.J. Yates do the improbable and give the city of Houston its first representative in the AFC Championship Game since the “Luv Ya Blue” Houston Oilers?

PREDICTION: Ravens 20, Texans 10
KEY MATCHUP: Ravens run defense vs. Arian Fostor/Ben Tate

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
ANALYSIS: The Green Bay Packers played much better this season than in their Super Bowl winning season last year with Aaron Rodgers emerging as a legitimate MVP candidate. Rodgers threw for 4643 yards and 45 touchdowns despite sitting out the season finale. Greg Jennings was once again his favorite target but four others also caught at least six touchdown passes including Jordy Nelson with a team-leading 15. With the Packers offense sizzling, the defense was awful, giving up the most yards in the league.

The New York Giants pounded the Atlanta Falcons so much into submission that they actually gave them two points thanks to a safety. But in all seriousness, New York’s 24-2 victory was impressive and the Giants continued their recent trend of running the football well and playing good defense. The Giants ran for a season-high 172 yards and Atlanta had a tough time getting its running game going. We cannot even forget Eli Manning’s play in the contest with 277 yards and three touchdowns to no interceptions. New York is quite familiar with Green Bay and played them close until the end of Week 13’s thrilling 38-35 Packers win. 

PREDICTION: Packers 30, Giants 27
KEY MATCHUP: Aaron Rodgers vs. Eli Manning

2011 NFL KICKOFF PREDICTION & SIMULATION

We have waited for so long for this, but it is finally here! Tonight’s game pits the last two Super Bowl Champions as the New Orleans Saints will try to make it back to football’s grandest stage against the defending champion Green Bay Packers. Expect a great matchup between two of the best quarterbacks in the game—Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. I think Green Bay has a slight advantage since this is opening night and the Super Bowl champion has yet to lose in the kickoff game. PREDICTION: Packers 27, Saints 24.

I also took the liberty to do a simulation of the game on Madden NFL 12. Sadly for Saints fans, the video game was not as kind.

Packers 30, Saints 7
 
New Orleans      0    0   7  0 --   7
Green Bay         14  13  0  3 --  30

First Quarter
GB – Starks 3 run (Crosby kick), 10:53
GB – T.Williams 92 interception return (Crosby kick), 6:21
Second Quarter
GB – FG Crosby 54, 11:01
GB – FG Crosby 49, 4:43
GB – Jennings 1 pass from Rodgers (Crosby kick), :05
Third Quarter
NO – Thomas 2 run (Kasay kick), :16
Fourth Quarter
GB –  FG Crosby 42, 9:31
 
                                  NO         GB
First Downs                  24          15
Total Net Yards            400        304
Rushes-yards               26-120   37-134
Passing                         280       170
Punt Returns                3-17       2-4
Kickoff Returns            5-107     2-39
Interceptions Ret.         0-0      4-137
Com-Att-Int               28-44-4   16-29-0
Sacked-Yards Lost        9-69      2-11
Punts                         6-49.1     7-43.1
Fumbles-lost                 5-2        0-0
Penalties-yards            1-10        1-5
Time of Possession      31:17      28:43

Individual Statistics
RUSHING – New Orleans, Ingram 22-115, P. Thomas 1-2, Sproles 2-2, Hall 1-1.  Green Bay, Rodgers 5-68, Grant 27-60, Starks 5-6.
PASSING – New Orleans, Brees 28-44-4-349. Green Bay, Rodgers 16-29-0-181.
RECEIVING – New Orleans, Colston 7-142, Henderson 4-51, Graham 4-27, Meachem 3-45, Hall 3-26, Ingram 2-7, D. Thomas 1-26, Moore 1-12, P. Thomas 1-8, Arrington 1-3, Sproles 1-2. Green Bay, G.Jennings 6-62, Nelson 3-35, Grant 3-4, Driver 2-65, Quarless 1-7, Finley 1-8.
MISSED FIELD GOALS- Green Bay, Crosby 58

I will get the rest of the Week 1 NFL predictions and Week 2 NCAA predictions done on Friday, with simulations of Ravens/Steelers, Jets/Cowboys, and Alabama/Penn State.

THE 2011 NFL PLAYOFFS: SUPER BOWL XLV

Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

ANALYSIS: For the third time in six seasons, the Steelers will be competing for the NFL's biggest prize. Many wondered how Pittsburgh would handle Ben Roethlisberger's four-game suspension, but they passed the test with flying colors. Roethlisberger has proven to be clutch once again this postseason, leading a comeback against Baltimore and sealing the AFC Championship against the Jets two weeks ago. With a win, Big Ben can join an elite group of quarterbacks who have won at least three Super Bowls, a list that includes Troy Aikman and Tom Brady.

In just three years, I'd say Aaron Rodgers has filled Brett Favre's shoes quite nicely. Despite a so-so performance in the NFC Championship Game against Chicago, Rodgers led the Packers to become the second No. 6 seed to make the Super Bowl (Roethlisberger was the first in 2005). Consider the fact that Green Bay lost 14 players to injured reserve, including their star running back Ryan Grant, and it makes this run even more impressive. Grant's replacement, James Starks, has used this postseason to showcase his talents. The undrafted rookie from Buffalo ran for 263 in the playoffs and added a touchdown in the NFC Championship Game.

PREDICTION: Steelers 24, Packers 21

KEY MATCHUP: The Steelers' defense vs. the Packers' defense (Nos. 1 and 2 in scoring defense, Nos. 1 and 2 in Defensive Player of the Year, and two great defensive coordinators. Who can ask for more? Expect another chess match for both teams, because I doubt we will see the aerial attack that both teams displayed last year.)

MVP: Ben Roethlisberger (QB-Steelers)

-In his first two trips to the Super Bowl, Ben saw Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes get the Disney promos. Well, it's time for Big Ben to get some love. Expect him to spread the ball around and actually take over the game.

THE 2011 NFL PLAYOFFS: CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets

ANALYSIS: Both teams survived close games against their bitter rivals last week, but Pittsburgh needed to come from behind to win against Baltimore. Ben Roethlisberger passed for 226 yards and two touchdowns as he now heads to his fourth AFC Championship Game. The Steeler defense must continue the momentum they had last week in the second half. If they can do this, their "stairway to seven" could become a reality.

It has not been pretty for the Jets, but they sure will take another win in the playoffs. New York did not let up against the Patriots and finally defeated their biggest tormentors on their to their second straight trip to the AFC Championship Game. Mark Sanchez's three passing touchdowns last week made him the first player to beat Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in a postseason. Can he add Big Ben to his mantel?

PREDICTION: Steelers 24, Jets 21

KEY MATCHUP: The Steelers' defense vs. The Jets' defense (If you thought last week's Ravens/Steelers game had a lot of defense, then how about a game with two of the top three defenses in the NFL? To quote Bart Scott, "Can't wait!")

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

ANALYSIS: Two things can be said about the Bears after last week's game against Seattle. 1) The Bears' defense is dominant and 2) Jay Cutler seems like he becoming more trustworthy. Cutler torched the Seahawks for 274 yards and two touchdowns as the Bears dominated from start to finish. Can the Bears continue to shuffle to Dallas?

Brett who? Aaron Rodgers is making Packer fans a little less worried about the future of their franchise by continuing to show up and show out in big games. Rodgers threw for 366 yards and three touchdowns in Green Bay's rout of Atlanta last week. It also does not hurt when Tramon Williams has three key interceptions in the playoffs either. All the Packers need to do is beat their hated rivals to get one step closer in bringing a title back to Titletown.

PREDICTION: Packers 27, Bears 24

KEY MATCHUP: Aaron Rodgers vs. Jay Cutler (Both QB's are playing lights out football right now so it will come down to who wants it more. Although Cutler has Matt Forte, Rodgers has the better set of receivers and that will be the difference.)

THE 2011 NFL PLAYOFFS: DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS

POWER RANKINGS

1. New England Patriots

2. Atlanta Falcons

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

4. Chicago Bears

5. Baltimore Ravens

6. Green Bay Packers

7. New York Jets

8. Seattle Seahawks

AFC DIVISIONAL GAMES

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

ANALYSIS: No Moss? No problem! Tom Brady still put up great numbers while throwing to a diminutive group of receivers and two rookie tight ends. The fact that Brady only has four interceptions and has not thrown a pick in nearly three months is even more eye-popping. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots recorded 38 takeaways and led the league with 25 interceptions. With a turnover differential of +28, it is easy to see why the Patriots are considered favorites in this year's playoffs.

As Rex Ryan stated, it's personal. Well, after a 45-3 beatdown on Monday Night Football on Dec. 6, I would sure hope so. The good thing for Ryan and the Jets is that they won their last "it's personal" game, a 17-16 thriller against the Colts. Mark Sanchez must continue to practice ball control and limit New England's possessions, much like he did against the Colts.

PREDICTION: Patriots 24, Jets 14

KEY MATCHUP: Tom Brady vs. Mark Sanchez (Let's put aside The Hoodie, Rex, and Revis Island for a minute. Brady is going to get his, so it is imperative that Sanchez keeps the Patriot offense on the sideline. If he does that, he will be the first quarterback to beat Brady and Peyton Manning in the same postseason.)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens

ANALYSIS: For the people that thought Ben Roethlisberger's suspension would make the Pittsburgh Steelers struggle early, well they were wrong. At 12-4, the Steelers held off the Ravens and won the AFC North. They did it in the typical Pittsburgh way: the best scoring defense, the best run defense, and a commitment to ball-control offense. Roethlisberger only threw five interceptions in 12 games while the Steelers allowed teams to reach the 100-yard plateau twice.

The Baltimore Ravens started slow against Kansas City in the Wild Card Round, but their defense unnerved the young Chiefs squad late en route to a 30-7 win. Ed Reed overcame the disappearance of his brother to deliver one of the best hits of the 2010 season on Dexter McCluster. The Ravens will need more of those hits and then some, because it is a heavyweight fight when these two teams collide.

PREDICTION: Steelers 14, Ravens 10

KEY MATCHUP: The Steelers' defense vs. The Ravens' defense (As always, defense is key here. Whichever defense can limit the big plays of the other team's offense will win this game. Simple.)

NFC DIVISIONAL GAMES

Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers

ANALYSIS: When at home, Matt Ryan is as close to unbeatable as you can get. So it is only fitting that the Atlanta Falcons would have home-field advantage through the NFC portion of the playoffs. Ryan does not fold under pressure either, he engineered five fourth-quarter comebacks and six game game-winning drives this season. Also having weapons such as Michael Turner, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez do not hurt either.

The Green Bay Packers are not your typical No. 6 seed, just ask Michael Vick. The Packers hit him often and hit him hard. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were in control throughout most of the the game, relying on little used rookie James Starks. Green Bay must do a better job on containing the pass against Ryan though. Giving up 292 yards like they did against Philadelphia will not cut it.

PREDICTION: Falcons 27, Packers 24

KEY MATCHUP: Matt Ryan vs. Aaron Rodgers (Both quarterbacks are the future of the NFL, so which one performs better will win this game.)

Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks

ANALYSIS: The Bears are finally back in the playoffs, and you have to thank their defense for putting them there. Chicago's defense ranks ninth overall and second against the run, and big free agent acquisition Julius Peppers showed why the Bears got him. Peppers recorded eight sacks, tying him for the team lead. If Jay Cutler can limit the mistakes, we could see the Bears in the NFC Championship Game.

One down, three to go. The Seattle Seahawks delivered the shot heard around the world (and a tremor felt away from Seattle) when they upset the the New Orleans Saints on Wildcard Weekend. Marshawn Lynch broke nine tackles on his way to clinching the game, but doing so on the Bears' run defense will be even tougher. Seattle has two things going for them: 1) they beat Chicago in Soldier Field on Oct. 17 and 2) Jay Cutler's inconsistency -- and that may be just enough.

PREDICTION: Seattle 17, Chicago 16

KEY MATCHUP: Good Jay Cutler vs. Bad Jay Cutler (Ok, not really a matchup, but hear me out. If Cutler performs well, the Bears will avoid the upset. However, if he does not, all bets are off and we could see a 7-9 team hosting the NFC Championship Game.)

THE 2011 NFL PLAYOFFS: WILD CARD WEEKEND

POWER RANKINGS

1. New England Patriots
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Indianapolis Colts
6. New Orleans Saints
7. Baltimore Ravens
8. Chicago Bears
9. Green Bay Packers
10. New York Jets
11. Kansas City Chiefs
12. Seattle Seahawks

AFC WILD CARD GAMES

Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets

ANALYSIS: Some things are always bound to happen, one of those things is Peyton Manning playing in January for the playoffs. For the ninth straight year, the Colts are in the postseason, but this is the first year that they have not won 12 games since 2002. Through his team's struggles and injuries, Peyton Manning is having another good season with 4700 passing yards and 33 touchdowns for the league's fourth-best offense.

The Jets must once again try to stop this offense, a task that outspoken coach Rex Ryan relishes. New York's third-ranked defense might have faltered down the stretch, but it performs best in must-win games. In order the unit to be effective, Mark Sanchez must manage the game well and put a 58.6 quarterback rating in December behind him.

PREDICTION: Colts 28, Jets 21

KEY MATCHUP: Peyton Manning vs. Rex Ryan (One does things quietly, the other is loud. Quiet Peyton got the best of loud Rex and his defense last year. The question is though, will Peyton and has group of receivers challenge Revis Island?)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens

ANALYSIS: From Kickoff Weekend to now, The Kansas City Chiefs showed everyone that they are a tough team with a bright future. They draw comparisons to the New England Patriots from the early 2000s by forcing timely turnovers and a run-oriented offense to help the quarterback. Jamaal Charles became the first running back since 2007 to run for six yards a carry. Behind the best running game in the NFL, Matt Cassell returned to his 2008 form by throwing 27 touchdowns and only seven interceptions.

Playing on the road in January is nothing new to this Ravens squad. This will be the six straight road playoff game since John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco arrived in 2008, and they proved to be up for the challenge. Flacco is looking to be the first quarterback in NFL history to win a playoff game in each of his first three seasons. Finally the Ravens have a decent passing game to help the run. Do not forget the defense, however, it is still a top-10 squad.

PREDICTION: Ravens 21, Chiefs 10

KEY MATCHUP: Jamaal Charles vs. Baltimore's run defense (The Ravens defense was not as dominant this year, but it is still stingy. Jamaal Charles will need to use every bit of his speed to reach the 100-yard plateau.)

NFC WILD CARD GAMES

Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints

ANALYSIS: At 7-9, the Seattle Seahawks have made the playoffs. I repeat, at 7-9, the Seattle Seahawks have MADE the playoffs. If you thought all the naysayers had a field day with the 2008 Arizona Cardinals, then imagine what will be thrown at this year's Seahawks. Do not take the record for granted though, a team like Seattle is dangerous if taken lightly. Matt Hasselbeck passed for 3000 yards again, and if healthy, he is still as good as any quarterback in the league.

The New Orleans Saints defeated the Seahawks 34-19 on Nov. 21, but they have been known to play down to weaker opponents this season. Nevertheless, New Orleans still boasts a top-10 offense and a top-5 defense along with being the defending Super Bowl champions. Drew Bress has thrown an interception in 12 straight games, but he still finds ways to distribute the ball. Eight Saints caught at least 30 passes and Brees threw for 4620 yards and 33 touchdowns.

PREDICTION: Saints 31, Seahawks 27

KEY MATCHUP: Seattle's will vs. New Orleans' mentality (This is the ultimate trap game for New Orleans. The Seahawks have nothing to lose as the NFL's first 7-9 playoff team and a team like the Saints can overlook this for the next game. New Orleans must stay focused or they will be upset.)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers

ANALYSIS: Out goes Donovan McNabb, in comes Michael Vick. The results stay the same for Andy Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles. Vick's reincarnation as a better and smarter quarterback fueled the Eagles to a 10-6 record and allowed him to throw for 3000 yards for the first time in his career. Philadelphia has a lot of speed to fly around the field as DeSean Jackson only caught 47 passes but gained 1056 yards, an average of 22.5 yards a catch.

The Green Bay Packers' regular season began with a 27-20 win in Philadelphia and they will be looking to do the same in the playoffs. With Ryan Grant sidelined in the opener, the Packers depended on Aaron Rodgers' arm. Rodgers came within 78 yards from another 4000-yard season, but still managed to throw for 28 touchdowns.

PREDICTION: Eagles 28, Packers 24

KEY MATCHUP: Vick vs. the Green Bay defense (In Week 1, Vick passed for 175 yards and ran for 103 yards in a loss to the Packers. How Green Bay plans to contain him will go a long way to determine who wins this game.)