2012 NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

SEASON SERIES: Spurs won 2-1

ANALYSIS: The San Antonio Spurs have rolled right along the 2012 NBA Playoffs with sweeps of the Utah Jazz and the Los Angeles Clippers, all while maintaining an 18-game winning streak since losing to the Los Angeles Lakers on Apr. 11. The Spurs have had solid contributions from their three key players—Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker—while still being able to manage each of their minutes thanks to a deep bench and other role players.

Making it to consecutive West Finals for the first time since 1978-1980, the Oklahoma City Thunder are hoping that last season’s loss to the Dallas Mavericks enables them to grow even more and possibly make the Finals. Oklahoma City only lost one game against the last two teams to put them out of the playoffs en route to this stage. First All-NBA selection Kevin Durant continues to improve his standing as one of the NBA’s elite players, while Russell Westbrook and 2011-12 Sixth Man of the Year James Harden are both great players that make this trio as terrific as they are.

POSITION SHOWDOWNS

PG: Tony Parker vs. Russell Westbrook

ADVANTAGE: Push

-The fellow 2011-12 All-NBA Second Teamers square off in this round with a contrast in styles. Parker likes to get his teammates involved more, while Westbrook is a bit more aggressive with his offensive game. The key in this one will be how one performs defensively and limits the other. Parker torched Oklahoma City for 42 points and nine assists on Feb. 4, but both players played well in their Mar. 16 tilt—a Spurs win.

SG: Danny Green vs. Thabo Sefolosha

ADVANTAGE: Danny Green (Spurs)

-Although these two may have a small impact in this series, it may be one to hardly ignore. Green did not become a starter until Feb. 8, but he has provided 3-point shooting and good defense for San Antonio since then. Sefolosha’s stats are not that impressive, but what does not make the stat sheet—his perimeter defense—is something that helps out the Thunder.

SF: Kawhi Leonard vs. Kevin Durant

ADVANTAGE: Kevin Durant (Thunder)

-Like Green, Leonard is another good defender that San Antonio has. However, this could be his biggest test in this year’s playoffs as he will likely guard Durant. The runner-up to this year’s MVP award is averaging 26.7 points and 8.1 rebounds this postseason while not scoring less than 22 in that stretch. Leonard does one stat going for him, Durant only averaged 22.7 points against San Antonio this season—more than five points below his regular season average.

PF: Tim Duncan vs. Serge Ibaka

ADVANTAGE: Tim Duncan (Spurs)

-Ibaka has been a great shot blocking machine this season, turning away a league-high 241 shots and recording the 10-block plateau three times this season. But what happens when he plays against a rejuvenated Duncan? Duncan looks as if he has really turned back the clock in the playoffs. With the Spurs’ deep bench, rarely being in a closely contested game and the two sweeps, it is beneficial to Duncan, who only averaged 32.0 minutes this postseason but has his lowest defensive rating since 2003.

C: Boris Diaw vs. Kendrick Perkins

ADVANTAGE: Kendrick Perkins (Thunder)

-Diaw has seen it all this year. He started the season with the Charlotte Bobcats, but he signed with the Spurs two days after being waived from Charlotte on Mar. 21. However, I think Perkins’ championship experience wins out here. Mainly a defensive center, Perkins has come through with 14 blocks of his own and 5.9 rebounds per game this postseason.

BENCH: San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

ADVANTAGE: San Antonio Spurs

-While Manu Ginobili and James Harden are two of the top sixth men in the NBA right now, the Spurs deep bench might be one of the best in the NBA. Ginobili leads the group with 11.3 points per game this postseason, while players like Stephen Jackson and Gary Neal can provide good scoring off of the bench. Oklahoma City does have Harden averaging 17.0 points and 5.0 rebounds in the playoffs. Derek Fisher’s veteran leadership and Nick Collison’s hard-nosed defense will help the Thunder. Whichever team’s bench performs better, it has a good job of winning the game. 

PREDICTION: Spurs in 6.

2012 NBA PLAYOFFS: WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Clippers
SEASON SERIES: Spurs won 2-1
PREDICTION: Spurs in 5

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers
SEASON SERIES: Thunder won 2-1.
ANALYSIS: In a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals, the Oklahoma City Thunder wasted no time in making quick work of the defending champion Dallas Mavericks with a sweep. 2011-12 MVP runner-up Kevin Durant was instrumental in the series as he set the tone with his Game 1 game-winner. Durant averaged 26.5 points and 7.5 rebounds against the Lakers, while James Harden’s 29 points in the series finale allowed the Thunder to get revenge from last postseason.

The Los Angeles Lakers battled through a tough seven-game series with the Denver Nuggets, where they were tested by an athletic, tough team. Kobe Bryant was again has normal self, averaging 29.1 points in the series, while Andrew Bynum had a great time staying out of foul trouble. Bynum tied a playoff high with 10 blocks in Game 1 en route to a triple-double. However, the Lakers showed that they missed Metta World Peace and he rewarded them with 15 points and four steals in Game 7.
PREDICTION: Thunder in 6.

2012 NBA PLAYOFFS: WESTERN CONFERENCE QUARTERFINALS

San Antonio Spurs vs. Utah Jazz
SEASON SERIES: Spurs won 3-1
ANALYSIS: The San Antonio Spurs are once again the West’s top seed, but they are vowing not to be on the wrong side of another monumental 1/8 upset like last season. Gregg Popovich continued to manage Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker’s minutes, while giving younger players much valuable playing time. Despite only averaging 32.1 minutes, Parker scored 18.3 points per game and average 7.7 assists.


The Utah Jazz make it back to the playoffs after a one-year absence after making an effective playoff push. Utah finished No. 4 in scoring with 99.7 points per game and part of that is due to their ability to score inside. Al Jefferson scored 19.2 points and had 9.6 rebounds per game this season and Paul Millsap added 16.6 PPG and 8.8 RPG. What could hurt the Jazz is their defense as they allow 99.0 points per game—No. 23 in the NBA. 
PREDICTION: Spurs in 5


Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks
SEASON SERIES: Thunder won 3-1
ANALYSIS: The Oklahoma City Thunder might be the No. 2 seed in the West, but they are the arguably the conference’s favorites to make it to the NBA Finals. In two bonafide superstars in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, the Thunder are one of the more exciting teams in the NBA. Durant won his third straight scoring title with 28.0 points per game and is considered to be in the MVP race.


The Dallas Mavericks looked like a shell of their former selves this season, but as they showed last year that when they get it together, they can win. The defending champions overcame rest, injuries and controversy to sneak into the playoffs as a dangerous No. 7 seed. Dirk Nowitzki put together another good season with 21.6 PPG and 6.8 REB. 
PREDICTION: Mavericks in 6.


Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
SEASON SERIES: Lakers won 3-1
ANALYSIS: The Los Angeles Lakers started slow of the gate, but bounced back to take the Pacific Division crown over their city rivals, the Clippers. While Kobe Bryant continues to show why he is one of the best players in the NBA, the play of Andrew Bynum—for the most part—has been impressive. Bynum averaged 18.7 points and 11.7 rebounds for the Lakers this year and showed that he can be a good center in the NBA.


The Denver Nuggets are a deep and an explosive team as shown by their ability to score. Denver was tops in scoring average with 104.1 points per game and seven different players averaged at least 10 PPG, including midseason acquisition JaVale McGee. Rookie Kenneth Faried had a great showing in his first year, averaging 11.1 points and 8.3 rebounds after taking the starting power forward position for good on Feb. 19.
PREDICTION: Lakers in 7.


Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Clippers
SEASON SERIES: Clippers won 2-1
ANALYSIS: After a strong playoff showing last year, the Memphis Grizzlies are back and better than ever this season by securing the No. 4 seed and homecourt advantage for at least one round in this year’s playoffs. Unable to play in last year’s run, Rudy Gay is back as he led the team with 19.0 points per game. The Grizzlies’ strong inside with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol will make for a tough out in the playoffs.


The Los Angeles Clippers are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2006 after the best season in franchise history. Having Chris Paul gave the Clippers excitement, hope and leadership. With his 19.8 points and 9.1 assists per game, he made everyone around him better. Blake Griffin was a good beneficiary to Paul joining the Clippers by scoring 20.7 points and having 10.7 rebounds per game along with many thunderous dunks.
PREDICTION: Grizzlies in 7.

2011 NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE QUARTERFINALS

San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies

ANALYSIS: The San Antonio Spurs heard that they were too old and that their window of opportunity was shutting, but they sure did not play like it. San Antonio went 61-21, even though Popovich scaled back Tim Duncan’s minutes in order to save him for the playoffs. The plan worked beautifully as the Spurs have home court throughout the West playoffs, along with a good mix of veterans and young players.

The Memphis Grizzlies enter the playoffs looking to do something that they have never done—win a playoff game (0-12 in three appearances). However, Memphis boasts a hungry and young team, led by Zach Randolph. Since Rudy Gay’s injury, Randolph continues to show why he was snubbed from the All-Star game, nearly averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds after the break.
SEASON SERIES: both teams tied, 2-2 (home team won each time)
PREDICTION: Spurs in 5
KEY MATCHUP: Tony Parker vs. Mike Conley (this match-up embodies what this series is all about—experience vs. youth)
PIVOTAL GAME: Game 1 (Manu Ginobili is a bit dinged up after hyper-extending his elbow, so this might be the best chance for Memphis to steal a game)

Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Hornets

ANALYSIS: The Los Angeles Lakers may have backed into the playoffs, but if any team knows how to flip the switch whenever it counts, it is them. The defending two-time NBA champions still have arguably the best closer and best player in the game in Kobe Bryant and he is not slowing down any time soon.

Despite the trade demands that Chris Paul gave before the season began, New Orleans made the playoffs and sported one of the league’s best defenses. Aside from Paul, Emeka Okafor, and Trevor Ariza, the Hornets have a team of hard-working players that may not be household names. However, these players will have to step up since David West suffered a season ending injury.
SEASON SERIES: Lakers won, 4-0
PREDICTION: Lakers in 5
KEY MATCHUP: Ron Artest vs. Trevor Ariza (Likely they will not guard each other, so this is about the defensive assignments. Ariza may draw Kobe, while Artest’s job might be to shut down CP3.)
PIVOTAL GAME: Game 1 (Bynum’s knee is still banged up, so if the Hornets could win one here. However, the Lakers still have the length advantage with Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom.)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trail Blazers

ANALYSIS: The Dallas Mavericks always keep winning, winning 50 games for the 11^th year in a row. Dirk Nowitzki continues to show why he is one of the NBA’s top players after averaging 23.0 points and 7.0 rebounds per game once again.

No matter what they go through, the Portland Trail Blazers are a dangerous team. LaMarcus Aldridge nearly made the West All-Star team and can arguably be considered as a top 20 player in the league.
SEASON SERIES: both teams tied, 2-2 (home team won each time)
PREDICTION: Mavericks in 7
KEY MATCHUP: Dirk Nowitzki vs. LaMarcus Aldridge (Two of the best power forwards in the game will do battle here. Expect a lot of points between these two)
PIVOTAL GAME: Game 7 (This series was dead even in games won and points, and the home team won each time. It is only fitting that seven games will determine this.)

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets

ANALYSIS: The Oklahoma City Thunder certainly are the team of the future and they have realized their potential. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are both budding stars for the Thunder and it showed as the franchise won its first division title since leaving Seattle.

No Melo? No problem! The Denver Nuggets have stayed on the winning track since trading their once franchise player and Chauncey Billups. The Nuggets finished the season 18-7 without Carmelo and actually looked more like a refreshed team, especially on the defensive end.
SEASON SERIES: Thunder won, 3-1
PREDICTION: Thunder in 7
KEY MATCHUP: Kendrick Perkins vs. Nene (This is one of the main reasons why Oklahoma City traded for Perkins—to match up better against good centers. Nene has really stepped up his rebounding game since the Carmelo Anthony trade, but Perkins gives the Thunder a better defensive presence in the post.)
PIVOTAL GAME: Game 6 (Any game in Denver has the potential to be pivotal, thanks to the high altitude of the city. The same can be said here. Both teams love to score a lot and we will see many tired legs. Who can win the series here or force a seventh game? We will see.)

THE NBA PLAYOFFS: UPDATED POWER RANKINGS & THE CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

POWER RANKINGS
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Orlando Magic
3. Los Angeles Lakers
4. San Antonio Spurs
5. Boston Celtics
6. Phoenix Suns
7. Utah Jazz
8. Atlanta Hawks/Milwaukee Bucks

EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
ANALYSIS: These two teams know each other all too well. The last time the LeBrons faced the Boston Three Party in the playoff was in a thrilling seven-game series in the 2008 Eastern Conference Semifinals, with an even exciting Game 7. LeBron James and Paul Pierce matched 40-point performances, but it was the Celtics prevailing en route to their 17th NBA championship. Now, the Cavaliers have Shaquille O'Neal and Antwan Jamison to help out LeBron as he looks for that elusive title. Both teams dispatched their opponents in five games to get here, so expect another knockdown, drag-out fight that will go seven.
SEASON SERIES: tied, 2-2
PREDICTION: Cavaliers in 7
MATCH-UP: LeBron, Shaq, & Jamison vs. Pierce, Garnett, and Allen (The big three players)
PIVOTAL GAME: Game 7 (like in 2008, the home team could win every game in this series)

Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks/Milwaukee Bucks
ANALYSIS: The Orlando Magic are looking dominant this postseason after a sweep of the Charlotte Bobcats in the first round. The amazing thing is that they were able to do this with Dwight Howard being limited to foul trouble. Expect him to play a bigger role in this series, against either one of these two teams, especially against the Bucks without Andrew Bogut. The Hawks' immaturity and lack of winning on the road against a quality opponent could doom them in the end, and the Bucks' inexperience could do the same thing.
SEASON SERIES: (ORL/ATL) Magic, 3-1; (ORL/MIL) Magic, 3-0
PREDICTION: (ORL/ATL) Magic in 4, (ORL/MIL) Magic in 4
MATCH-UP: the point guards (Nelson vs. Bibby/Jennings)
PIVOTAL GAME: Game 1 (Will the Magic be rusty? Will Atlanta or Milwaukee be tired?)

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Utah Jazz
ANALYSIS: The undermanned Utah Jazz shocked the Denver Nuggets in six games, while the Los Angeles Lakers were nearly shocked by the Oklahoma City Thunder, needing a crucial putback shot by Pau Gasol to not force a seventh game. This will be the third straight year that these teams will do battle in the playoffs, and the Lakers won on their road to the NBA Finals the previous two years. It will be difficult for the Jazz to try to reverse that trend this year, with them severely lacking size with no lengthy option to counteract Gasol, Bynum, and Odom...but as always true with a Jerry Sloan team, the team never gives up and plays hard.
SEASON SERIES: Lakers, 3-1
PREDICTION: Lakers in 5
MATCH-UP: Boozer and Millsap vs. Gasol, Bynum, and Odom (the battle of the bigs)
PIVOTAL GAME: Game 3 (Kirilenko wants to come back then)

Phoenix Suns vs. San Antonio Spurs
ANALYSIS: The rivalry continues! Two anomalies stand out here: 1) a No.7 seed is actually a dangerous team in the playoffs. 2) The Suns actually won a game without scoring 100 points! (They won 99-90 in Game 6 against Portland.) As always though in this series, it's all about the pace of the game. A fast pace favors the Suns, and a slow pace favors the Spurs. Whoever can control the pace of the game, wins this series.
SEASON SERIES: Suns, 2-1 (home team won every game)
PREDICTION: Spurs in 6
MATCH-UP: Parker vs. Nash (they will determine the pace of this series)
PIVOTAL GAME: Game 1 (What style and pace this series will have will be dictated here)