2012 NFL PLAYOFFS: DIVISIONAL ROUND

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers
ANALYSIS: The San Francisco 49ers are back in the playoffs for the first time in nine seasons and new head coach Jim Harbaugh has the team playing good football. Alex Smith has not been asked to do much, but he has done a great job in protecting the football with just five interceptions. Shouldering most of the load has been Frank Gore—who ran for a solid 1211 yards and eight touchdowns this season. San Francisco is also doing it on the defensive end with the fourth-best unit in the league. Giving up passing yardage might be a concern, but the 49ers picked off 23 passes, while it is very tough to run on the best run defense in the league.

The New Orleans Saints got off to a slow start on Wild Card Weekend, but everything clicked late as they defeated the Detroit Lions, 45-28. The Saints offense was as explosive, if ever, tallying up 626 yards—a new NFL record for a playoff game. Drew Brees threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns on 33-of-43 passing, and Jabari Greer’s two second half interceptions virtually end any chance of a Lions’ win. This week, the Saints will try to win their first road game in franchise history. 

PREDICTION: Saints 27, 49ers 23
KEY MATCHUP: The Saints offense vs. the 49ers defense (especially the passing game)

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
ANALYSIS: The New England Patriots are back in the playoffs, yet they are seeking their first postseason win since the AFC Championship Game four seasons ago. In a mirror image of last season, the Patriots breezed through the second half of the season and Tom Brady made his claim to win the MVP award. Brady passed for 5235 yards and 39 touchdowns, and if not for Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, he would have had the more prolific passing season this year. His two favorite targets—Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski—were reliable this season, each having over 1300 yards receiving. On the flip side, New England has the second-worst defense in the league but they did force the third-most takeaways with 34.

Tebow-Mania lives to see another week after the Denver Broncos’ thrilling 29-23 overtime win last week. Just as everyone was grasping the new overtime rules made specifically for the playoffs, Tim Tebow hooked up with Demaryius Thomas for the 80-yard “one-hitta quitta” to seal the deal.  Tebow was just 10-for-21 passing, but he threw for 316 yards. While under the radar, Thomas’ 204 receiving yards (103 after the catch) is just as impressive. Denver hopes to avenge a 41-23 loss in Week 15 to the Patriots. 

PREDICTION: Broncos 23, Patriots 20
KEY MATCHUP: Tim Tebow vs. the Patriots defense

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
ANALYSIS: The Baltimore Ravens finally were able to unseat the Pittsburgh Steelers as champions of the AFC North, ensuring a home playoff game for the first time since 2007. The Ravens are still fierce on defense, giving up the third-fewest yards and points this season. Terrell Suggs recorded 14 sacks and one can never count out Ray Lewis being the heart and soul of the unit. On offense, Ray Rice ran for 1364 yards and 12 touchdowns, along with catching 74 passes. Joe Flacco continues to be hit-or-miss playing quarterback at times, but he threw for 3610 yards and 20 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. Rice, Anquan Boldin, Ed Dickson and Torrey Smith will be counted on to help Flacco.

Houston, we have liftoff! The Houston Texans soared to a 31-10 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in their first-ever playoff game last week. Arian Foster dominated on the ground, running the ball 24 times for 153 yards and two touchdowns. Andre Johnson caught five passes for 90 yards in his playoff debut and Houston’s defense forced three turnovers, including J.J. Watt’s pick six late in the second quarter. In this week’s game, can rookie T.J. Yates do the improbable and give the city of Houston its first representative in the AFC Championship Game since the “Luv Ya Blue” Houston Oilers?

PREDICTION: Ravens 20, Texans 10
KEY MATCHUP: Ravens run defense vs. Arian Fostor/Ben Tate

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
ANALYSIS: The Green Bay Packers played much better this season than in their Super Bowl winning season last year with Aaron Rodgers emerging as a legitimate MVP candidate. Rodgers threw for 4643 yards and 45 touchdowns despite sitting out the season finale. Greg Jennings was once again his favorite target but four others also caught at least six touchdown passes including Jordy Nelson with a team-leading 15. With the Packers offense sizzling, the defense was awful, giving up the most yards in the league.

The New York Giants pounded the Atlanta Falcons so much into submission that they actually gave them two points thanks to a safety. But in all seriousness, New York’s 24-2 victory was impressive and the Giants continued their recent trend of running the football well and playing good defense. The Giants ran for a season-high 172 yards and Atlanta had a tough time getting its running game going. We cannot even forget Eli Manning’s play in the contest with 277 yards and three touchdowns to no interceptions. New York is quite familiar with Green Bay and played them close until the end of Week 13’s thrilling 38-35 Packers win. 

PREDICTION: Packers 30, Giants 27
KEY MATCHUP: Aaron Rodgers vs. Eli Manning

2012 NFL PLAYOFFS: WILDCARD WEEKEND

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
ANALYSIS: The Houston Texans are in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history and overcame many injuries to get to this point. Matt Schaub and Mario Williams were lost for the season, while Andre Johnson was slowed and limited to seven games. The good news is that Johnson is back to give rookie quarterback T.J. Yates a dependable target when he does need to throw. For the other times, Arian Foster and Ben Tate will share the load on the Texans’ No. 2 ranked ground game. Defensively, Brian Cushing leads a unit that ranked No. 2 in total defense and allowed the fourth-fewest amount of points this season.

As the Cincinnati Bengals said adios to Chad Ochocinco and Carson Palmer, their new quarterback/receiver tandem is already turning heads in their first year in the league. A.J. Green lived up to being the No. 4 draft pick in the 2011 NFL Draft after catching 65 passes for 1057 yards and seven touchdowns while fellow rookie Andy Dalton was not shabby in his debut season. The second rounder from TCU threw for 20 touchdowns and 3398 yards as he learned the position. One cannot forget Cincinnati’s underrated defense that only allowed 323 points and helped the team win close games.

PREDICTION: Texans 21, Bengals 17
KEY MATCHUP: Andy Dalton vs. T.J. Yates

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
ANALYSIS: Drew Brees put up unheard of numbers this season as the New Orleans Saints look to win their second Super Bowl in three years. The signal caller threw for a record 5476 yards and shared the wealth evenly as five players caught at least 50 passes in the Saints’ high-powered aerial attack. Brees’ favorite target this season was tight end Jimmy Graham—who burst onto the scene in a major way with 99 receptions for 1310 yards. The only weakness might be New Orleans’ “bend, but don’t break” No. 24 team defense.

The Detroit Lions snapped their long playoff drought thanks to Jim Schwartz instilling a nasty, tough attitude to the team that has not won a title since 1957. Some have taken the nastiness a bit too far to heart such as Ndamukong Suh. When the Lions played the Saints five weeks earlier, Suh was serving the first game of his two-game suspension after stomping on a player. Now that they have him back, they may be able to put up more of a battle in the trenches. Detroit has enough to go into a shootout with New Orleans, thanks to Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. However, Megatron must improve upon his output (six catches, 69 yards) from when these two teams last met.

PREDICTION: Saints 38, Lions 31
KEY MATCHUP: Ndamukong Suh vs. the Saints’ offensive line

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
ANALYSIS: Left for dead at 6-6, the New York Giants manned up to win three of their last four—including a sweep of the Dallas Cowboys—to take the NFC East crown. While still a bit erratic at times, Eli Manning stepped up when needed by delivering five comeback wins. His primary target was Victor Cruz, who burst onto the scene with 82 catches for 1536 yards and nine touchdowns. However, the two things the Giants must improve upon are defense and running the football. The Giants had the worst rushing attack this season and were 2-7 when they did not get over 100 yards.

For the first time in their history, the Atlanta Falcons have made the playoffs in consecutive seasons but it is the team’s recent lack of playoff success that many people are talking about. Mike Smith and Matt Ryan have yet to win a playoff game and to do so they have to limit their turnovers and stop the opposing team’s passing game. Luckily, Atlanta has a good balance of the run and pass with Ryan throwing for over 4000 yards and Michael Turner rushing for 1340 yards and 11 touchdowns. The Falcons are very good in stopping the run as well, ranking No. 6 in that category.

PREDICTION: Falcons 21, Giants 10
KEY MATCHUP: Michael Turner vs. New York’s run defense

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

ANALYSIS: The Denver Broncos turned a 1-4 start into an AFC West title after John Fox benched Kyle Orton for Tim Tebow. While Tebow has been dreadfully inaccurate for most of ballgames, he finds ways to win late. Much credit for this goes to Fox for building a game plan that suits Tebow based on a heavy dose of the running game led by Willis McGahee. On defense, rookie standout Von Miller leads a squad that has gotten better in recent weeks, but still can be inexperienced at times and suffer whenever Tebow struggles.

This year, the Pittsburgh Steelers lost the AFC North title to the Baltimore Ravens, but the defense was still stingy in allowing other teams to get yards and points. Pittsburgh was the best team in total defense and scoring defense, as James Harrison and Troy Polamalu look to have big games without Ryan Clark playing in this game. On offense, Ben Roethlisberger might be hobbled but he is very tough and he threw for over 4000 yards this season.

PREDICTION: Steelers 10, Broncos 7
KEY MATCHUP: Tim Tebow vs. the Steelers defense

2011 NFL WEEK 3 RECAP

SUPERDOME SHOOTOUT

Mark Ingram (28) celebrates after scoring his first career touchdown.

Many thought that Week 3’s game between the Houston Texans and the New Orleans Saints would be high-scoring and it definitely lived up to the hype once the fourth quarter began.

Houston already led 19-17 through three quarters and when Matt Schaub connected with James Casey on a 26-yard pass just six seconds into the half, the Saints were left trailing by nine.

Then the Saints’ quick scoring ability happened.

After forcing a three-and-out, Jimmy Graham redeemed himself by scoring a touchdown to make it 26-24. New Orleans then picked Schaub off on the next drive and followed that up with a Brees touchdown to Lance Moore to take the lead.

Houston would not give up though as a nine-play, 80-yard drive would be capped off by a bizarre pass that should have been an New Orleans interception ended up being a touchdown reception for Kevin Walter.

Down 33-32 and with plenty of time to take the lead again, the Saints did just that when Mark Ingram scored the go-ahead touchdown to make it 40-33. The defense would hold Houston from scoring and New Orleans won a wild game.

Schaub finished with 373 yards passing and three touchdowns, while Brees matched him in touchdown and had 370 yards through the air.

A TALE OF TWO HALVES IN THE TWIN CITIES

Jason Hanson (4) hits the game-winning field
goal against the Minnesota Vikings (Photo by AP Photo)

For the first 30 minutes, the Detroit Lions looked flat.

They trailed 20-0 at halftime to the Minnesota Vikings and if this were the franchise from the past decade, they would have folded on the spot. Besides, the Lions franchise had never came back trailing more than 18 points and they never won in Minnesota since 1997.

Then again, these are not your older brother’s Detroit Lions.

Matthew Stafford would hook up with Calvin Johnson on two touchdown passes as the Lions put up 23 unanswered points with 2:30 left.

Even when the Vikings tied it up to send the game to overtime, Detroit took care of business during the extra stanza.

Stafford’s 40-yard reception to Johnson set up a 32-yard Jason Hanson field goal, leaving the Lions with their first 3-0 start since 1980.

Stafford has proven to be a good quarterback when healthy as he completed 32 of his 46 passes for 378 yards and two touchdowns. Johnson caught both scores en route to a 108-yard day and Brandon Pettigrew caught 11 passes for 112 yards.

BILLS CIRCLE THE WAGONS, SNAP JINX AGAINST PATRIOTS

The last time the Buffalo Bills defeated the New England Patriots was Sept. 7, 2003.

In that game, Tom Brady threw four interceptions and Lawyer Milloy got revenge on the team that surprisingly cut him just days earlier. Most importantly, the Bills won 31-0 and Drew Bledsoe finally got his first win over the quarterback that took his place in New England.

Fast forward to 15 consecutive Patriot victories later and a 21-0 lead in the game’s first 24 minutes and it seemed as if Buffalo would lose a 16^th.

But then the Bills forced Brady to be erratic and the offense took advantage fully.

For only the sixth time in his 148-game career, Brady threw four picks, including one for a pick six by Drayton Florence that gave Bills a 31-24 lead with 10:22 left in the game.

New England did not give up easily and tied up the game with a Brady pass to Wes Welker with 3:25 remaining. However it gave Buffalo one last chance to win the game.

And that they did, thanks to a Rian Lindell 28-yard field goal as time expired to take sole possession of the AFC East lead.

Bills players Scott Chandler (left), Brian Moorman and
Rian Lindell rejoice after the Bills defeated the Patriots

Despite the four interceptions, Brady threw for four touchdowns and 387 yards. Welker would finish with 16 catches for 217 yards and two touchdowns. For the Bills, Ryan Fitzpatrick went 27-for-40 and threw for 369 passing yards and two touchdowns.

WEEK 3 PREDICTIONS

NEW ENGLAND @ Buffalo
SAN FRANCISCO @ Cincinnati
MIAMI @ Cleveland
Denver @ TENNESSEE
DETROIT @ Minnesota
Houston @ NEW ORLEANS
N.Y. Giants @ PHILADELPHIA
Jacksonville @ CAROLINA
N.Y. JETS @ Oakland
BALTIMORE @ St. Louis
Kansas City @ SAN DIEGO
GREEN BAY @ Chicago
ARIZONA @ Seattle
ATLANTA @ Tampa Bay
PITTSBURGH @ Indianapolis
Washington @ DALLAS

WEEK: 10-6 (.625)
SEASON: 29-19 (.604)

PREDICTIONS FOR WEEK 4

Carolina @ CHICAGO
BUFFALO @ Cincinnati
TENNESSEE @ Cleveland
Detroit @ DALLAS
MINNESOTA @ Kansas City
Washington @ ST. LOUIS
San Francisco @ PHILADELPHIA
NEW ORLEANS @ Jacksonville
PITTSBURGH @ Houston
N. Y. GIANTS @ Arizona
ATLANTA @ Seattle
Denver @ GREEN BAY
NEW ENGLAND @ Oakland
Miami @ SAN DIEGO
N.Y. Jets @ BALTIMORE
Indianapolis @ TAMPA BAY

2011 NFL KICKOFF PREDICTION & SIMULATION

We have waited for so long for this, but it is finally here! Tonight’s game pits the last two Super Bowl Champions as the New Orleans Saints will try to make it back to football’s grandest stage against the defending champion Green Bay Packers. Expect a great matchup between two of the best quarterbacks in the game—Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. I think Green Bay has a slight advantage since this is opening night and the Super Bowl champion has yet to lose in the kickoff game. PREDICTION: Packers 27, Saints 24.

I also took the liberty to do a simulation of the game on Madden NFL 12. Sadly for Saints fans, the video game was not as kind.

Packers 30, Saints 7
 
New Orleans      0    0   7  0 --   7
Green Bay         14  13  0  3 --  30

First Quarter
GB – Starks 3 run (Crosby kick), 10:53
GB – T.Williams 92 interception return (Crosby kick), 6:21
Second Quarter
GB – FG Crosby 54, 11:01
GB – FG Crosby 49, 4:43
GB – Jennings 1 pass from Rodgers (Crosby kick), :05
Third Quarter
NO – Thomas 2 run (Kasay kick), :16
Fourth Quarter
GB –  FG Crosby 42, 9:31
 
                                  NO         GB
First Downs                  24          15
Total Net Yards            400        304
Rushes-yards               26-120   37-134
Passing                         280       170
Punt Returns                3-17       2-4
Kickoff Returns            5-107     2-39
Interceptions Ret.         0-0      4-137
Com-Att-Int               28-44-4   16-29-0
Sacked-Yards Lost        9-69      2-11
Punts                         6-49.1     7-43.1
Fumbles-lost                 5-2        0-0
Penalties-yards            1-10        1-5
Time of Possession      31:17      28:43

Individual Statistics
RUSHING – New Orleans, Ingram 22-115, P. Thomas 1-2, Sproles 2-2, Hall 1-1.  Green Bay, Rodgers 5-68, Grant 27-60, Starks 5-6.
PASSING – New Orleans, Brees 28-44-4-349. Green Bay, Rodgers 16-29-0-181.
RECEIVING – New Orleans, Colston 7-142, Henderson 4-51, Graham 4-27, Meachem 3-45, Hall 3-26, Ingram 2-7, D. Thomas 1-26, Moore 1-12, P. Thomas 1-8, Arrington 1-3, Sproles 1-2. Green Bay, G.Jennings 6-62, Nelson 3-35, Grant 3-4, Driver 2-65, Quarless 1-7, Finley 1-8.
MISSED FIELD GOALS- Green Bay, Crosby 58

I will get the rest of the Week 1 NFL predictions and Week 2 NCAA predictions done on Friday, with simulations of Ravens/Steelers, Jets/Cowboys, and Alabama/Penn State.

THE 2011 NFL PLAYOFFS: WILD CARD WEEKEND

POWER RANKINGS

1. New England Patriots
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Indianapolis Colts
6. New Orleans Saints
7. Baltimore Ravens
8. Chicago Bears
9. Green Bay Packers
10. New York Jets
11. Kansas City Chiefs
12. Seattle Seahawks

AFC WILD CARD GAMES

Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets

ANALYSIS: Some things are always bound to happen, one of those things is Peyton Manning playing in January for the playoffs. For the ninth straight year, the Colts are in the postseason, but this is the first year that they have not won 12 games since 2002. Through his team's struggles and injuries, Peyton Manning is having another good season with 4700 passing yards and 33 touchdowns for the league's fourth-best offense.

The Jets must once again try to stop this offense, a task that outspoken coach Rex Ryan relishes. New York's third-ranked defense might have faltered down the stretch, but it performs best in must-win games. In order the unit to be effective, Mark Sanchez must manage the game well and put a 58.6 quarterback rating in December behind him.

PREDICTION: Colts 28, Jets 21

KEY MATCHUP: Peyton Manning vs. Rex Ryan (One does things quietly, the other is loud. Quiet Peyton got the best of loud Rex and his defense last year. The question is though, will Peyton and has group of receivers challenge Revis Island?)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens

ANALYSIS: From Kickoff Weekend to now, The Kansas City Chiefs showed everyone that they are a tough team with a bright future. They draw comparisons to the New England Patriots from the early 2000s by forcing timely turnovers and a run-oriented offense to help the quarterback. Jamaal Charles became the first running back since 2007 to run for six yards a carry. Behind the best running game in the NFL, Matt Cassell returned to his 2008 form by throwing 27 touchdowns and only seven interceptions.

Playing on the road in January is nothing new to this Ravens squad. This will be the six straight road playoff game since John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco arrived in 2008, and they proved to be up for the challenge. Flacco is looking to be the first quarterback in NFL history to win a playoff game in each of his first three seasons. Finally the Ravens have a decent passing game to help the run. Do not forget the defense, however, it is still a top-10 squad.

PREDICTION: Ravens 21, Chiefs 10

KEY MATCHUP: Jamaal Charles vs. Baltimore's run defense (The Ravens defense was not as dominant this year, but it is still stingy. Jamaal Charles will need to use every bit of his speed to reach the 100-yard plateau.)

NFC WILD CARD GAMES

Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints

ANALYSIS: At 7-9, the Seattle Seahawks have made the playoffs. I repeat, at 7-9, the Seattle Seahawks have MADE the playoffs. If you thought all the naysayers had a field day with the 2008 Arizona Cardinals, then imagine what will be thrown at this year's Seahawks. Do not take the record for granted though, a team like Seattle is dangerous if taken lightly. Matt Hasselbeck passed for 3000 yards again, and if healthy, he is still as good as any quarterback in the league.

The New Orleans Saints defeated the Seahawks 34-19 on Nov. 21, but they have been known to play down to weaker opponents this season. Nevertheless, New Orleans still boasts a top-10 offense and a top-5 defense along with being the defending Super Bowl champions. Drew Bress has thrown an interception in 12 straight games, but he still finds ways to distribute the ball. Eight Saints caught at least 30 passes and Brees threw for 4620 yards and 33 touchdowns.

PREDICTION: Saints 31, Seahawks 27

KEY MATCHUP: Seattle's will vs. New Orleans' mentality (This is the ultimate trap game for New Orleans. The Seahawks have nothing to lose as the NFL's first 7-9 playoff team and a team like the Saints can overlook this for the next game. New Orleans must stay focused or they will be upset.)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers

ANALYSIS: Out goes Donovan McNabb, in comes Michael Vick. The results stay the same for Andy Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles. Vick's reincarnation as a better and smarter quarterback fueled the Eagles to a 10-6 record and allowed him to throw for 3000 yards for the first time in his career. Philadelphia has a lot of speed to fly around the field as DeSean Jackson only caught 47 passes but gained 1056 yards, an average of 22.5 yards a catch.

The Green Bay Packers' regular season began with a 27-20 win in Philadelphia and they will be looking to do the same in the playoffs. With Ryan Grant sidelined in the opener, the Packers depended on Aaron Rodgers' arm. Rodgers came within 78 yards from another 4000-yard season, but still managed to throw for 28 touchdowns.

PREDICTION: Eagles 28, Packers 24

KEY MATCHUP: Vick vs. the Green Bay defense (In Week 1, Vick passed for 175 yards and ran for 103 yards in a loss to the Packers. How Green Bay plans to contain him will go a long way to determine who wins this game.)